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Research briefs
Titles and abstracts from the most recent research briefs.
Find out more about our research briefs theme by reading this introduction to the topic, "The political viability of climate policies".
When and why compensation can unlock the green energy transition
Jacob Edenhofer, Federica Genovese
Abstract
Climate policy implies a tension for many established political actors, including progressive ones: mitigating climate change generates future public benefits while its present, immediate costs are often disproportionately borne by segments of the electorate upon whom these actors rely for political survival, notably workers and firms in carbon-intensive industries. The "just transition" paradigm has gained currency in progressive quarters in part because it offers a
way to resolve that tension by compensating “climate losers”. Against that backdrop, this brief examines the opportunities and challenges associated with climate-related compensation. We first discuss compensation as an integral component of “just transitions”. Second, we outline why, theoretically, compensation can be a winning political strategy. Third, we survey the empirical literature, arguing that compensation is most likely to work when it is encompassing, administratively feasible, visible, and credible. We conclude with a word of caution, highlighting trade-offs and pitfalls.
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How to make climate policies electorally popular
Diane Bolet and Fergus Green
Abstract
A major challenge facing progressive governments is implementing ambitious climate mitigation policies without triggering electoral backlash from those negatively impacted. This research brief draws on recent research by the authors and others to show that even stringent climate policies can gain electoral support, including from unlikely groups such as coalmining communities. Key to this success are three elements: financial and other forms of assistance to affected groups, participation by trusted stakeholders (such as unions) in the policy process, and strategic communication to explain the policies and redistributive measures and to counter misinformation from oppositional actors. Governments that incorporate these distributive, procedural and communicative dimensions into their climate policies can advance the transition to a low-carbon economy while limiting the electoral fallout — and even gaining public support.
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Public acceptance of climate policy depends on trust in government
Christina T. Toenshoff
Abstract
This brief summarizes empirical evidence which demonstrates that trust in the government shapes public opinion on climate policy. It argues that since climate policy always involves government intervention in some form, public acceptance of climate policy depends on the extent to which the public trusts their government to choose and implement policies fairly, effectively, free from corruption, legitimately, and credibly. Drawing on survey evidence, I demonstrate that trust in the government is strongly positively correlated with public support for various climate policies, such as carbon taxes and a ban on coal-fired power plants. I further show that those who trust the government react more positively to policy measures that aim to compensate the vulnerable for the cost of climate policy. Finally, I discuss policy measures that might increase political trust and thus support for climate policy. Among others, these include anti-corruption measures and broader participation by citizens.
Download - Public acceptance of climate policy depends on trust in government.
Do climate protests matter? The political potentials of climate mobilisation for a progressive agenda
Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti and Swen Hutter
Abstract
Since the mid-2010s, climate mobilisation has become a dominant force in the protest landscape of many democracies, featuring varying tactics ranging from school strikes and large-scale demonstrations by Fridays for Future (FFF) to confrontational acts like street blockades and "art-attacks" by groups such as Just Stop Oil and Last Generation. Public debate has been contentious, with strong concerns that confrontational tactics may provoke backlash and harm a progressive climate agenda. This policy brief first reviews the broader literature in protest research on the impact of climate mobilisation on public opinion and elite behaviour—key drivers of policy change. Contrary to claims that large-scale demonstrations lack significance, research shows that sustained mobilisation can positively shape public perceptions and policy outcomes, though effects depend on political conditions. The core of this brief examines whether confrontational tactics indeed damage the movement’s goals. Findings from an original survey experiment in Germany (2022–2023) reveal that while confrontational protests are less favoured than mass demonstrations, support for climate policies remains stable regardless of the protest tactics.