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New research from the Nuffield Political Research Centre has found that people in mid-life, who should feel in control of their lives, are the most likely to feel anxious about making ends meet as bills and financial commitments mount. This feeling of personal economic insecurity is driving voter volatility and the recent losses of support for Labour since the July 2024 general election.

“Never has the support of the major parties in British politics appeared more uncertain,” says Professor Jane Green. “Financially insecure voters are the ones looking for political alternatives because they can’t see things getting better for themselves or their children.”

Those who feel economically insecure represent 35% of the electorate, around 18.5m potential voters. Feelings of economic insecurity are caused by one or a combination of factors; worries about income, housing and childcare costs, the amount of savings and debt. 

For the first time it is shown that people aged 35 – 59, approximately 8.9 million voters, are most likely to be part of this economically insecure group and are more likely to be volatile in their political support.

The report finds that the new swing voters identified here are critical to understanding Labour’s loss of support after the election, as Labour lost more votes among those who felt economically secure between June-October 2024 than those who felt economically secure.

“The fragility of people’s finances, especially in mid-life, is matched with an increasingly fragile electoral landscape,” continued Professor Green. “With voters wavering in their party choices in mid-life, and feeling financially insecure, parties need to urgently focus on helping people have economic confidence looking ahead to the next election.”

The researchers found people felt economically insecure because of the combination of household economic difficulties and the associated level of financial worries resulting from job prospects, low levels of savings, low levels of disposable income, mortgage costs or other debts. People may feel one or all these things if they said they felt economically insecure.

“In our low growth and economically uncertain society, high anxiety mid-lifers are experiencing the worst of it,” added Professor of the Sociology of Politics and Director of the Centre for Research Methods in the Social Sciences at the University of Oxford Geoffrey Evans. “There is an opportunity available to any party that can soothe the financial fears of people in mid-life as they are more politically available than the young and the old.”

Among those who reported feeling economically insecure, 84% said that the economic security of households was an important policy area for the government to focus on and 39% rated it extremely important. While feeling anxious about your finances is most common in mid-life, poverty is not, and where poverty can be measured objectively, economic insecurity is a feeling arising from a broad set of financial circumstances.

The study also makes clear that a low income doesn't always result in feelings of financial insecurity. For example, older people live on a low income (on average) but are far more likely to have assets, savings, a smaller mortgage or fewer or no debts, and fewer financial responsibilities to family members.

“These are the people the Chancellor needs to keep in mind when devising her next Budget,” added Professor Evans. “Economic insecurity may well prove more damaging to Labour’s electoral prospects than immigration, as it hits home, in the home.”

“Financially insecure voters are the ones looking for political alternatives because they can’t see things getting better for themselves or their children,” concludes Professor Green. “All the talk of culture wars and immigration misses their primary experience.” 

“A party that delivers on economic security – supporting people by bringing down costs and giving people a chance to restock their savings safety net - can feel much more secure in their electoral prospects too. Without it we’re likely to see much more political volatility and further electoral fragmentation.”

Read the full report: Addressing key voters' economic insecurity is vital for all parties.