Conservatives’ Deeper Electoral Problems Revealed
New findings from the Nuffield Politics Research Centre show that the Conservatives are not just unpopular; they are increasingly irrelevant to the judgements made by voters that are critical in elections. While the Conservatives are still the ‘official opposition’ in Parliament, they are not in the eyes of voters in two ways:
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Reform has replaced the Conservatives as the party most voters see as the main locally viable party on the right.
- Voters judging the national economy are no longer choosing either Labour or the Conservatives based on those judgements, as has been true for decades. Instead, Reform UK have replaced the Conservatives.
Together, the findings show the Conservatives’ problems are deeper than they appear. While Kemi Badenoch may be enjoying more popularity, the mountain she needs to climb is arguably far steeper than any Conservative leader before her in the last century. She needs to convince voters that the Conservatives are the relevant opposition on the right of British politics.
Two graphs illustrate these points.
Graph 1: ‘The Economic Vote’ is now benefiting Reform, not the Tories
(Research by Dr Justin Robinson and team, Nuffield College)
British Election Study Internet Panel surveys, N 87,726. The points are from statistical models controlling for other factors.
The ‘economic vote’ is the tendency for the electorate to ‘punish’ governments when the economy is going badly and ‘reward’ the main party of opposition. To display this tendency in action, Graph 1 plots the relationship between thinking the economy is doing badly and vote intention for the Conservatives, Labour and Reform, over time.
The graph shows, pre-2024, that an underperforming economy – in the eyes of voters – meant a loss of support for the Conservatives and an increase in support for Labour. Post-2024, voters who think the economy is doing badly are more likely to support Reform, but not the Conservatives. Labour have been suffering a very strong penalty for the economy going badly. However, these judgements about the economy are not, by 2026, helping the Conservatives. This suggests that voters see Reform UK as that main party of opposition on the economy, not the Conservatives.
In further analysis, we find this is the first time the ‘official opposition’ hasn’t been a beneficiary of the ‘economic vote’ in the first years of entering opposition, even as those also followed economic crises. Our full analysis can be found here.
With economic forecasts for the next few months becoming increasingly negative, it is likely to become more difficult for Labour to maintain their bounce in the polls. Our research suggests that the Conservatives are unlikely to capitalise on this opportunity. If the Conservatives keep failing to benefit from negative assessments of the economy among voters – as has been the case since 2024 - it could be devastating for their electoral prospects. But it is not the only concern for the Conservatives.
Graph 2: Among the right, Reform UK have replaced the Conservatives as the viable local party on the right
(Research by Dr Marta Miori and Professor Jane Green, Nuffield College)
Samples are respondents in England and Wales, British Election Study (during the July 2024 general election campaign, N 28,289) and an original YouGov study (after the May 2026 local elections, N 10,094).
This graph shows the percentage of voters who think the Conservatives are more likely to win in their constituency than Reform in a general election, and vice versa, in 2024 and after the May 2026 local elections. The Conservatives were seen as the most viable party on the right in 2024 (63% of people), but only 1 in 4 people in England and Wales now think they are better placed to win than Reform in their constituency. And while Reform are now seen as the most viable party on the right by 45% of voters, the percentage of people not knowing which of the two would do better in their seat has also increased; they could be decisive.
Together, these findings matter for whether the Conservatives can recover and realistically mount a challenge in the next general election. And because Reform UK have taken most of their votes from the Conservatives, the findings are important for the broader ‘fight on the right’. While Reform have suffered various setbacks recently, they are, as things stand, likely to be the beneficiaries of ongoing economic pain and of tactical local decisions if voters want to back the most viable right party.
What could the Conservatives do? One challenge is to translate being Britain’s official opposition to voters at home, making policy offers that deliver the message of a competent alternative government in waiting, with a more trusted team. The other is to be more relevant opposite Andy Burnham, holding his government to account, convincing more voters who may be choosing between a left and right bloc, that the choice can still be between Labour or the Conservatives. Finally, Kemi Badenoch needs a signal that the Conservatives can win something again. Her strategy of recent years appears to have so far failed to do that. A course-change seems vital if the Conservatives are to tackle their deeper problems of relevance and viability.